2000 Game Analysis

Gordon Edes, columnist for the Boston Globe, has won the 2000 Baseball Predicts by 13 points over Tony Chase and Scott Van Camp. Gordon was 18th at the All-Star Break and waited until the day after Labor Day to climb into the lead. He and Tony Chase (2) traded the lead until mid-September and then Gordon began to pull away from the pack. His 13 point lead at the end was the biggest lead that any player held all season.

There were eleven different leaders this year, the same as 1999, and 30 lead changes. Bob Thomas (44) was the leader when the standings were first completed in mid-April. Gary Shinabarger (123), Peter Gammons (17t) and Spring Training BB Yearbook (16) were among the early leaders. Gerry Hamilton (9) was the leader at the ASB and held the lead until the Giants finally got rolling in late August. Dan Schlossberg (11t), Tony Chase, Mel Antonen (11t), Darin Slocum (7) and Gene Scearce (4) also held or shared the lead during the Summer. The standings were run 83 times this season. Gerry Hamilton led 24 times, Tony Chase led twelve times and Gordon Edes led ten times. There were twelve other players that also appeared on the leader board (top 3), most of them during the early going.


Final Standings Gordon Edes' Picks
ALE GB NLE GB ALE Pts NLE Pts SCORING: Computed by matching the Final Standings to each player's picks, and calculating how many games each team finished out of their predicted order of finish. See Gordon Edes' picks (left).
NYY - Atl - NYY - Atl -
Bos 2.5 NYM 1.0 Bos - NYM -
Tor 4.5 FL 15.5 Tor - Mon 12.5
Bal 13.5 Mon 28.0 Bal - Phi 2.0
TB 18.0 Phi 30.0 TB - FL 14.5 KEYS: Codes used to define the success (of failure) in each division's results. Caps indicate positive of good keys and lower case are negative or bad keys. Example: D- picked Chicago 2nd w/Cleveland 1st in the AL Central. All keys are defined on page 5.
0 29
ALC GB NLC GB ALC Pts NLC Pts
Chi - StL - Cle 5.0 Cin 10.0
Cle 5.0 Cin 10.0 Chi 5.0 StL 10.0
Det 16.0 Mil 22.0 Det - Hou 1.0
KC 18.0 Hou 23.0 KC - Pit 3.0 TB- Tie breaker: Points accumulated by each player's six projected division winners.
MN 26.0 Pit 26.0 MN - Chi 4.0
Chi 30.0 Mil 8.0
10 36 Cum Stats: Average percentile placing of 119 players that have participated for three or more years. YR- Years played: RK- Rank among 119 players.
ALW GB NLW GB ALW Pts NLW Pts
Oak - SF - Oak - SF -
Sea 0.5 LA 11.0 Sea - AZ 1.0
Ana 9.5 AZ 12.0 TX 11.0 LA 1.0 Best Pr: Best previous finish, year and place.
TX 20.5 CO 15.0 Ana 11.0 CO -
SD 21.0 SD - Abbreviations: BAC- Boeing Aircraft Co.; CSULB- Cal State University at Long Beach; JPL- Jet Propulsion Lab; W86- won game in 1986, etc. All locations are in California unless otherwise noted.
22 2

Total ........

99


Division Leaders: Below is a list of the top picks in each division. There were 46 correct division scores this season, 43 in the AL East, down from 125 correct division picks last year. No one had more than one division correct. Thirteen players made the list twice.

AL East AL Central AL West NL East HR Central NL West
GORDON EDES 0 WILL SIDES

0
Scott Van Camp

1
Bill Perry

4
Brian Ronholm

8
BRIAN RONHOLM 0
TONY CHASE 0 Tim Carvalho

4
Gene Scearce

1
Brian Peters

4
Tony Chase 16 NANCY MICHAEL 0
DARIN SLOCUM 0 Spr Trng Res

4
Gerry Hamilton

1
Stephen Sears

4
Gene Scearce 16 Gordon Edes 2
GERRY HAMILTON 0 Dan Demangos

4
Street & Smith

18
Gary Shinabarger

25
Darin Slocum 16 Sean McAdam 2
ATHLON SPORTS 0 Brit Harvey

19
Larry Palomino

27
David Dial 16 Athlon Sports 2
DAVID DIAL 0 Jim A. Slagle 16 Dan Schlossberg 2
TIM CARVALHO 0 29 players @ 10 20 players tied @ 22 83 players tied @

29
Gerry Fraley 16 Gerry Fraley 2
HARRY CAULKINS 0 youcouldlookthisuptoo Ken Daley 16 Randy Lang 2
JAMES ROVER 0 David Cusiter 16 Tony DeMarco 2
BRIAN PETERS 0 Harry Caulkins 16 Hal Berger 2
Bob Thomas 16 Jack Hauck 2
and 33 more players @ 0 David Flowers 2
youcouldlookitup James Rover 2
Jackie Dawson 2

Tie breaker: The TB represents the points accumulated by each player's six projected division winners. Brian Ronholm (10) and Anthony Chase (88) had the best TB- 5.0 points, missing on only the Indians in the AL Central. Five others had a TB of 5.5 points, missing on the Indians and the Mariners. The TB served us very well this year, breaking 92% of our ties and leaving us with just four ties involving nine players.

Keys: The following is a list of the keys (10 pts or more) to our individual performance this year. Caps indicate positive or good keys, while lower case indicate negative of bad keys. The approximate value is the amount of points saved on or added to our scores. To determine the importance and value of of each key, look at the final standings (above) and find the significant gaps, for example, in the AL East, Toronto finished nine games ahead of Baltimore. Then compare the keys to the consensus.


Div.
Code: Key Description: Approx. Value No of Players Notes:

ALE

/b
did not pick Balt and TB 4th or 5th 18 73

/t
neither Balt or TB 4th or 5th 49 1 Spring Training Results

ALC

C
Chicago 1st and Cleve 2nd -32 5 none of the leaders, incl the last 2

D
Chicago 2nd w/Cleve 1st -22 56 six of the top eight

/m
did not pick Minn last 16 24

ALW

O
Oak and Sea 1st or 2nd -18 40

T
Texas last -22 5 three of the top ten

/o
neither Oak or Sea 1st or 2nd 18 8

NLE

F
Florida 3rd w/Atl and NYM -29 3 none of the leaders

/a
did not pick Atl and NYM 1st or 2nd 29 13

/p
did not pick Mont or Phil 4th of 5th 54 3

HRC

S
St Louis 1st -20 31

R
Cinc 1st or 2nd w/StL -24 38 nine of the top ten

/r
neither StL or Cinc 1st or 2nd 24 2

NLW

G
San Francisco 1st -22 35 five of the top six

/s
did not pick San Diego last 12 57

Most of the keys were worth about twenty points this year while some of the bigger values like the White Sox, and the Marlins were not factors. Philadelphia and Detroit were factors in the early going but not at the end. Two other teams, the Cubs and Devil Rays were a factor but contributed less that ten points each.


Cum Stats
: Dudley Michael (122) of Brea, CA, continues to be the top Cum predictor with an eight year cum average of 21.7% and a narrow 0.36% lead over Darin Slocum of Chino, CA. This is the first bad year that Dudley has had since he started predicting in 1993. Darin Slocum is the new top veteran (ten years or more) player with a ten year average of 22.08%, taking over from Gerry Hamilton (9) who has led the veteran players since 1995. Gerry has improved on his cum avg% for nine straight years including this year but it wasn't good enough to hold off Darin.

Top 10- three years or more

Top 10- ten years or more
 Top 10  Location  Yrs  Cum%    Top ten  Location  Yrs  Cum%  Rank
Dudley Michael Brea, CA

8

21.72
Darin Slocum Chino, CA

10

22.08

2
Darin Slocum Chino, CA

10

22.08
Gerry Hamilton Baywood Park, CA

23

24.57

4
Orange County Register

5

24.54
Player Consensus

36

33.84

11
Gerry Hamilton Baywood Park, CA

23

24.57
Harry Caulkins La Mirada, CA

21

34.88

14
Ken Daley Dallas Morn News

5

26.82
Nelson Slagle Westminster, CA

41

35.56

16
Spring Training Annual

8

27.42
LA Times

20

36.00

17
USA Today BB Wkly

6

27.64
John Baker Upper Arlington, OH

27

36.75

19
Glantz & Culver odds

3

27.66
John Kehrbaum Pasadena, CA

13

36.88

20
David Dial Brea, CA

3

29.38
TSN Annual

23

37.55

21
Tim Moore Long Beach, CA

6

33.83
Bill Mazeroski Ann

16

37.78

22



Credits/Kudos: I'd like to offer my thanks to those who contributed to this year's game. Randy Lang was the top contributor submitting 16 picks. Anthony Chase submitted this year's winning pick along with two others from the Boston Globe. Too bad he didn't think to put his own name on it. I would also like to thank Nelson, Gary S., Brock, Warren and Mike K for their special consideration. The following are some of the others who also contributed:

 George Hay

 10
 Al Julian

 5
Tony Chase

  3
 Mike Kern

 9
Steven Silverman 

 5
Sharon Clark

  3
 Nelson Slagle

 8
Warren Morris

4 
7 others

 2ea

 Rick Mize

7
Anthony Chase

4 
   

And finally, a few closing thoughts. Over the past several years, our game has experienced only small and very subtle changes, and until this year it has looked and functioned pretty much as it has since it was first mechanized in 1986. That all changed in the year 2000 though, as the game went on-line and this year it was played on the internet for the first time. By April my baseball e-mail list swelled to over 80 names and about 100 players soon had access to weekly standings. Then on August 11th, the Web site finally came on-line and soon after, even a few pictures became available. If fact, to the best of my knowledge, only twelve regular players did not have access to the internet and on-line game status.

From this end it has been a struggle at times, as many of you must have realized. I have had to learn a new and sometimes balky computer as well as several new applications. Things work much differently now, and not always better, than they did when I acquired my first computer, nearly 15 years ago. I'm still learning, even as I work on this document, and hopefully, I will get a little better at this by the next time around. I'd like to especially thank those who took the time to offer their support and suggestions via e-mail. In all, I have heard from over 60 players and about 30 have taken the time to comment in the Web site. I've even made contact with a couple of professional folks, including the President of a company that designs baseball games for the computer. I'd like to think that I made a few new friends this year.

Sadly, I also lost one as Tony Chase passed away at his home on August 13th. Tony won our game in 1986 and was a loyal supporter of the game for the last 17 years. He was responsible for bringing several new players into the game, including his son, Anthony, of Boston. During the summer, Tony and I had a continuing, sometimes daily exchange of e-mail messages. It was always about baseball and it was a pleasure to hear from him. I shall miss Tony very much.

Until next spring,

ggh oct7

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