Sean McAdam, of ESPN, has won the 2001 Baseball Predictions by one point over Randy Youngman, columnist for the Orange County Register. Sean was 28th at the All-Star Break and waited until the last day of the season to take the lead. The key to his win was picking Minnesota ahead of Detroit and Kansas City in the AL Central, one of just six players to make that pick. This is Sean's second season in the predictions. He was 6th last year.
There were seven different leaders this year, down from eleven in 2000, and just twelve lead changes. Al Green (61) was the leader when the standings where first computed at the and of April. Randy Youngman took the lead in mid-May and held the lead most of the way through the end of the season. Randy traded the lead with Cecil Fields (10) of Boeing, Huntington Beach, through June and Jerry Saltz (3t) also of Boeing, Huntington Beach, briefly in August. Two other players, Jack Clark (7) of Etowah, TN, and Gene Scearce (39) of Yorba Linda, California could only manage to tie Youngman for the lead once each during the season.
|ALE||GB||NLE||GB||ALE||Pts||NLE||Pts||SCORING: Computed by matching the Final Standings to each player's picks, and calculating how many games each team finished out of their predicted order of finish. See Sean McAdam's picks (left).|
|TB||34.0||Mon||20.0||Bal||1.5||Phil||18.0||KEYS: Codes used to define the success (of failure) in each division's results. Caps indicate positive of good keys and lower case are negative or bad keys. Example: D- picked Detroit and Kansas City 4th or 5th in the AL Central. All keys are defined on page 4.|
|6||44||Cum Stats: Average percentile placing of 122 players that have participated for three or more years. YR- Years played; RK- Rank among 122 players.|
|Ana||41.0||LA||6.0||TX||2.0||LA||-||BEST PR: Best previous finish, year and place.|
|CO||19.0||SD||6.0||Abbreviations: JPL- Jet Propulsion Lab; All locations are in California unless otherwise noted.|
|133||W89- won game in 1989, etc.|
Division Leaders: Below is a list of the top picks in each division. There were 38 correct division scores this season, 28 in the AL East and ten in the AL West. Randy Youngman (2) and Jerry Saltz (3t) managed to get both of the divisions correct. Jerry Saltz, Brock Hauck (23) and Fran Nimick (42) made the list three times while eight players made the list twice.
In the AL East over 3/4ths the
players scored eight points or less, taking that division out
of play, while in the AL Central, nearly 2/3rds of the players
had either 38 or 40 points.
|AL East||AL Central||AL West||NL East||NL Central||NL West|
|R. Youngman||0||Bob Klapisch||4||R. Youngman||0||Dan Demangos||4||TSN Weekly||4||Sean McAdam||12|
|Jerry Saltz||0||Kristen Mize||4||Jerry Saltz||0||Charles Kovac||8||David Lipman||4||Chris Mauro||12|
|SF Chronicle||0||Hal Berger||4||Jerry Hilger||0||Dubow/Walker||8||Dudley Michael||12||Athlon Sports||12|
|Bill Thibodeau||0||Sean McAdam||6||Jack Clark||0||Brock Hauck||8||Brock Hauck||14||Brett Carman||12|
|Shane O'Niell||0||Chris Mauro||6||Cecil Fields||0||Jeff Miller||8||James Rover||22||Fran Nimick||12|
|John Baker||0||D. Shaugnessey||6||Atticus Ryan||0||Jerry Saltz||12||MLB Yearbook||40||Mike Kern||12|
|Steve Bisheff||0||Brock Hauck||38||Mark Nichols||0||Phil Hensley||12||R. Shinabarger||12|
|Rebecca Kupay||0||Gene Scearce||38||Gene Scearce||0||Cecil Fields||12||Mark Whicker||12|
|Ginny Whiteley||0||Fran Nimick||38||John Mitchell||0||Fran Nimick||12||Bob Ryan||12|
|Larry Palomino||0||ESPN.com||38||Tim Carvalho||0||Herb Stoltenberg||12|
|Jeff Miller||0||Russ Shinabarger||12|
|and 16 others||0||Donna Lang||12|
Tie breaker: The TB represents the points accumulated by each player's six projected division winners. Nancy Jo Michael (15) picked all six division winners and had a perfect tie breaker, edging five players that missed on only San Francisco in the NL West and tied with a tie breaker of 2.0.
Keys: The following is a list of the keys (10 pts or more) to our individual performance this year. Caps indicate positive or good keys, while lower case indicate negative of bad keys. The approximate value is the amount of points saved on or added to our scores. To determine the importance and value of of each key, look at the final standings (pg3) and find the significant gaps, for example, in the AL East, Toronto finished 16.5 games ahead of Baltimore. Then compare the keys to the consensus below.
|ALE||/n||did not pick New York 1st||27||27|
|/b||did not pick Balt and TB 4th or 5th||33||12|
|/t||neither Balt or TB 4th or 5th||74||1||Brit|
|ALC||D||Detroit & Kansas City 4th or 5th||-34||6||incl. Sean McAdam|
|/c||did not pick Cleveland 1st||12||44|
|/d||neither Detroit or Kansas City 4th or 5th||34||4|
|ALW||S||picked Seattle 1st||-28||21||5 of top 7|
|O||Oakland & Seattle 1st or 2nd||-54||68||most important key|
|/a||neither Oak or Sea 1st or 2nd||54||1||Ted|
|NLE||M||picked Montreal last||-16||64|
|F||Florida & Montreal 4th or 5th||-12||23|
|/m||did not pick Mont or Flo 4th and 5th||54||2||Brit & John Sickels|
|NLC||C||Hous, StL & Chi 1st, 2nd or 3rd||-40||5|
|/s||did not pick Houston & St Louis 1st or 2nd||10||55|
|/h||only one of the top three teams correct||54||17|
|/z||none of the top three teams correct||116||1||Brit|
|NLW||A||Arizona & San Francisco 1st and 2nd||-12||23|
|R||picked Colorado last||-12||2||Dan and Athlon Sports|
|P||San Diego & Colorado 4th or 5th||-14||56|
|/g||neither Arizona or San Francisco 1st or 2nd||22||7|
The most important key this year
was taking Seattle and Oakland ahead of Anaheim and Texas in the
AL West, where the A's nipped the Angels by 27 games. This resulted
in a 54 point swing that effected the entire field as 68 players
had the pick right while 80 players missed it. Just over half
(75) the players had both Houston and St Louis 1st and 2nd in
the NL Central. Pittsburgh was also a factor but conributed less
than ten points.
Cum Stats: A pair of new three year players, Gordon Edes (51), columnist fort he Boston Globe and Robert Kuwada (47), Columnist for the Orange County Register are the new Cum Stat leaders. They moved ahead of last year's leader, Dudley Michael (19). Gerry Hamilton (26) regained the lead for veteran players, replacing last year's leader, Darin Slocum (142).
|Top ten||Current players||Yrs||Cum%||Top ten||Ten yrs or more||Yrs||Cum%||Rk|
|Gordon Edes||Boston Globe||
|Robert Kuwada||Orange County Register||
|Ross Newhan||LA Times||16||33.49||17|
|USA Today BB Wkly||Staff||
|John Baker||Upper Arlington, OH||28||35.92||22|
|Peter Gammons||Boston Globe/ESPN||
|Los Angeles Times||21||36.19||24|
|The Sporting News||24||36.98||25|
Best Prior: The last two columns of the final standings represent the best finish for each player through 2000. This is a weighted value. For example, it is better to finish 20th against over 200 players than to finish 10th against less than 100 players. The following is a list of the top two players for each game played over the past 26 years.
Credits/Kudos: I'd like to offer my thanks to those who contributed to this year's game. Nelson Slagle (82) and Randy Lang (89) were the top contributors, each submitting 18 picks. The following are some of the others who also contributed:
|Anthony Chase||7||Rick Mize||5||Dennis Davis||
|Steven Silverman||5||George Hay||4||8 others||
|Mike Kern||5||Al Julian||4|