2010 Season Wrap

Congratulations to Audrey West of Montera, CA for winning the 51st running of the Annual Baseball Predictions, by twenty points over Dirk Soeterik of Oakville, Ontario and twenty-two points over Jonathan Pinyan of Allendale, NJ. This is Audrey's 8th year in the game and her best finish to date was 3rd place 2003. She did not participate in our last year's game.

Audrey in the third player from Randy Lang's network to win the game. Randy's wife, Donna Lang, won in 1990 and Mark Martinelli won in 1998.

Early leaders included Brit Harvey, Chris Smith and Hector Garcia. Brit was the leader when the spreadsheet was first computed in late April. Chris and Hector traded the lead through early May until Audrey West first made it to the top in mid-May. From mid-May through the first week of August, Audrey and Vince Fusconi traded the lead with brief appearances by Bob Flanagan, Jimmy Vandegriff and Jonathan Pinyan. Between August 9th and September 17th Paul Brezden and Paul Ulliman traded the lead. Audrey regained the lead on September 20th and was never headed from that point on. By season's end she had built a twenty point lead, the biggest lead of the entire season. We ran the player standings 64 times this year. There were ten different leaders, eighteen lead changes and Audrey was the leader 26 times.

Division Leaders: There were 123 perfect division level predictions this year, nearly all of them in the AL Central (33) and the NL East (87). Chuck Averill (4) was the only player with three divisions correct while twelve players, including Bob McMeen, Eric Mack, Steve Sax, Doug Sloane, Nghia Nguyen, SABR Survey, Yahoo! Power Ratings, Baseball Prospectus PECOTA Projections, John Slagle, Brian Torry, Steve Ellis and Jeff Passan each had two divisions correct. Here is the listing of this year's top ten predictors including the most common scores for each division:

AL East

Pts
AL Central

Pts
AL West

Pts
Aaron Roy

0
Dirk Soeterik

0
Chuck Averill

0
Hector Garcia

2
Chuck Averill

0
Marc DuCharme

0
Larry Palomino

2
Evan Morrill

0
Mike Fulton

2
Brian Greiving

2
Larry Waters

0
AW West

20
Chris Smith

2
Bob McMeen

0
Dirk Soeterik

20
Albert Kirchner

2
Ken Funck

0
Jonathan Pinyan

20
Dominick Castagnola

2
Eric Mack

0
Bob Flanagan

20
Blake Kirchner

2
Aaron Roy

0
Scott White

20
Chompo Campuzano

12
Steve Sax

0
Garrett Walvoord

20
AW West

14
Jim Thomas

0
John Perrotto

20
        Dominick Castagnola

20
& 50 others @

14
& 23 others @

0
   
111 players @

52
43 players @

26
105 players @

60
        (also high score)  
NL East

Pts
NL Central

Pts
NL West

Pts
Chuck Averill

0
Paul Brezden

10
AW West

20
Paul Ulliman

0
Larry Waters

12
Hector Garcia

20
Paul Brezden

0
Gregory Skruch

12
Fred Cordia

20
Joe Marando

0
Eric Einhorn

12
Brit Harvey

20
Dick Hammerstrom

0
Gerry Bilek

12
Stat Geek

20
James Rover

0
Mike Fulton

12
John Costello

20
Russ Shinabarger

0
Mike Anderson

12
Alexis Hauck

20
Houdricourt & Hoynes

0
Rick Kelly

12
Joe Marando

24
Bob McMeen

0
David Laurila

12
Ron Mize

24
Scott White

0
Gail Lampson

12
Vince Fuconi

24
           
& 77 others @

0
15 players @

14
& 5 others @

24
63 players @

2
135 players @

32
67 players @

68
        71 players @

74

Tie-Breaker: The tie-breaker represents the points accumulated by each players projected division winners. Chuck Averill led a group of ten players with a low tie-breaker of 15.0 points, all but one missing on the Yankees, Cardinals and Rockies.

Five players, lead by Audrey West picked the Giants to go all-the-way. The others were James Rover (18), Brent Wood (93), Ted Kaser (201) and Alexis Hauck (216) while two players, Marc DuCharme (36) and Ed Stokes (83) picked the Rangers to take the American League Pennant. No one had the Rangers winning it all.

CumStats: Jay Jaffe of Baseball Prospectus is our new CumStat leader with a four year average of 15.97% and a 2.1 point lead over last year's leader, Josh Sinnett, of Bellingham, WA and a 6.7 point lead over the SABR Survey. Gerry Hamilton, of Trinidad, CA remains the top veteran player with a 33 year average of 28.56% and a 2.8 point lead over the Player Consensus. Below is a list of the top ten players in each group:

CumStat Leaders
 

Top Ten Veteran Players

Top Ten Players - 3 Years or More
 

Ten Years of More

Rank
Name

Yrs

CumAvg
 

Rank
Name

Yrs

CumAvg

1
Jay Jaffe

4

15.97
 

1
Gerry Hamilton

33

28.56

2
Josh Sinnett

7

18.08
 

2
Player Consensus

46

31.35

3
SABR Survey

6

22.62
 

3
Mark Martinelli

10

32.79

4
John Salizzoni

5

22.85
 

4
Nelson Slagle

51

34.75

5
Brian Greiving

6

25.88
 

5
Charles Kovac

11

35.24

6
Tom Thiebaud

3

26.77
 

6
James Rover

13

35.90

7
Gerry Hamilton

33

28.56
 

7
Atticus Ryan

10

36.23

8
Joe Perri

5

29.70
 

8
Blake Vasquez

19

36.68

9
Player Consensus

46

31.35
 

9
John Slagle

29

37.00

10
Mark Martinelli

10

32.79
 

10
Sports Illustrated

31

37.70
                 

The Trophy: It is not likely that Audrey will ever see our new rotating (50 year old softball) trophy but Audrey and her family did get to see and, hopefully touch a far more significant trophy- the new San Francisco Giants 2010 Major League Baseball Championship Trophy. Audrey and her husband, Tim, also got to attend game 2 of the Giants/Rangers series but she was not the only member of our group to make it to the series. Here is a picture of the West family and the Giants trophy.

In August Todd Slavinsky (63) was hired by the Texas Rangers.  Todd's primary function is to write software in support of the Rangers baseball operations, mostly the scouting system and reporting. Even as new hire Todd got to follow the the team, along with the front office staff, to both Tampa and San Francisco during the post season. Here is a shot of Todd's new office building- The Ball Park at Arlington- centerfield/top floor.

Correspondence: I didn't keep track of the correspondence this year, primarily because my ten year old e-mailer failed me during the Summer, but expect that I heard from about 30 or 40 players during the season, many of you on a regular basis, and it is always great to hear from you. To the best of my failing recollection, there were no complaints this time. The best part, however, was a visit from Dale Steinmann and his new bride, Maggy, last Summer and we enjoyed a very nice lunch together at a local seaside restaurant.

Hope to see y'all back here by the end of the month,
Gerry Hamilton
Trinidad, CA
March 9, 2011
ggh1@suddenlink.net
http://bbpredicts.unitedleagues.net/

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