2012 Season Wrap

Congratulations to Brit Harvey of Albuquerque, NM for winning our 2012 Baseball Predictions, finishing two points ahead of Tim Carvalho of Santa Susana, CA and fourteen points ahead of Brian Wood of Pittsburgh, PA. Brit had the dynamite combination of Texas/Oakland in the AL West and Washington/Atlanta in the NL East. He waited until August 22nd to move to the head of the class and soon built a double digit lead which he maintained for most of the rest of the season. Brit had a fourteen point lead on Labor Day and lost the lead only once on October 1st, to Tim, but quickly regained it two days later. This is Brit's 17th year in the game. His best finish to date was 2nd in 2004, the only other time that Brit has cracked the top 10%, and he was 203rd last season. Brit is the fourth member of Randy Lang's network to win the game. Two of those players are still active: they are Mark Martinelli (123) who won in 1998 and Audrey West (30) who won in 2010, all Giants fans.

Tim has been in the game 29 times. His best finish to date was 14th in 1987, also the only time that Tim cracked the top 10%, and he was 200th last season. This is Brian's second time in the game. He was 58th last year.

Early leaders included Bob Hurst (152) who was the leader when the spreadsheet was completed in mid-April. Bob only led for one day but was soon followed by three of his sons. Other early leaders included Justin Burson (13), Scott Hurst (5), Matthew Cataldo (54), twins Isiah & Joshua Hurst (6) and Doug Slothower (33). Brian Wood (3) took the lead on the Fourth of July. Brian's son, Luke Wood (18t), took the lead for one day before Brian regained it and held the lead until August 22nd when Brit Harvey (1) finally stepped up. Brit's only challenger the rest of the way was Tim Carvalho (2) who led briefly in early October.

The player standings were run 88 times this season, up from 50 times a year ago. There were ten different leaders and 22 lead changes. Brit was the leader 24 times and Brian led 23 times. Justin Burson and Scott Hurst each led thirteen times.

Division Leaders: There were only 32 perfect division level predictions this year, down from 75 last year. There were no perfect predictions in the AL East, where no one had Baltimore as high as 2nd or Boston last, the AL West where no one picked Oakland to win, and the NL East where only six player picked the Nats to win and nearly all players had the Phillies either 1st or 2nd. In the AL East 124 players (65%) scored 48 points (the low division score) as the Orioles finished 24 games ahead of the Red Sox (see how that works?). Here is the listing of this year's top ten predictors including the most common and average scores for each division:

Top 10 Players by Division
AL East

Pts
AL Central

Pts
AL West

Pts
Tim Carvalho 48 Brian Jenkins 0 Brit Harvey 2
Brian Wood 48 C Trent Rosecrans 0 Jimmy Vandegrift 2
Darren Dawson 48 Gregory Skruch 0 Tim Carvalho 10
AJ Julian 48 Pat Morris 0 Brian Wood 10
Atticus Ryan 48 Brian Bilek 0 Darren Dawson 10
Lucy Hay 48 Scott White 0 AJ Julian 10
Jonathan Carson 48 Larry Waters 4 I. & J. Hurst 10
Dan Bacon 48 Mike Fulton 4 Lucy Hay 10
Jim Thomas 48 Audrey West 4 Atticus Ryan 10
Brent Wood 48 Rob Morris 4 Jonathan Carson 10
& 114 others @ 48 & 12 players @ 8 & 88 others @ 10
57 players @ 38 91 players @ 38
Average Score 51.4 Average Score 30.6 Average Score 23.5
NL East Pts NL Central Pts NL West Pts
Tim Carvalho 8 Darren Dawson 0 AJ Julian 0
Colette Richards 8 I. & J. Hurst 0 Vince Fusconi 0
Brit Harvey 10 Jonathan Carson 0 Todd Owens 0
Justin Burson 10 Brent Wood 0 Warren Morris 0
Brian Wood 18 Patty Elmore 0 Jon Pinyan 0
Jamie Gehrke 18 John A. Salizzoni 0 Dave Sauerheber 0
AJ Julian 34 Eric Enders 0 Tim Carvalho 10
Luke Wood 34 George Hay 0 Audrey West 10
2011 Final Standings 34 Rob DePass 0 Alex Jangard 10
Scott Hurst 34 Dick Hammerstrom 0 John Costello 10
& 6 others @ 34 & 10 others @ 0 & 4 others @ 10
73 players @ 58 34 players @ 28 51 players @ 50
Average Score 60.7 Average Score 36.2 Average Score 41.0


Tie-Breaker:
The tie-breaker represents the points accumulated by each player's projected division winners. Arlin Caldwell (17th) and Rick Kelly (94) had the low tiebreaker with 5.0 points, both missing on Texas and Atlanta. Gerry Bilek (64) and Todd Colegrove (164) were next with a tiebreaker with 9.0 points, both missing on the Angels and Braves.

The tie-breaker served very well this year. As their greed dictates, MLB owners managed to play all 2,430 scheduled games, milking its adoring public of every dime that it could muster. This left us with a lot of ties- forty-two in fact- involving nearly 80% (159 of 190) of the players. The tie-breaker broke 79% of those ties and we are left with only fifteen ties including thirty-three players.

Projected Winners: Having nothing to do with our scores, 29 players had San Francisco projected to be in the World Series including seven players that picked the Giants to win it all again in 2012. Forty-five players had Detroit in the World Series with fourteen players picking the Tigers to be the runner-up. Dale Steinmann (116) was the only player to pick the Giants over the Tigers. The other six players to pick the Giants were Audrey West (30), Marty Kaynan (61), Ted Kaser (85), Rick Kelly (94), Alexis Hauck (136) and Lynne Martinelli (174). Sorry, no bonus for being right.

CumStats: John Salizzoni
, of Manchester, NH is our new CumStat leader with an seven year average of 23.17% and a 0.9 point lead over new three year player, Larry Waters, of Danbury, CT and a 1.1 point lead over former CumStat leader, Josh Sinnett of Bellingham, WA. Gerry Hamilton, of Trinidad, CA remains the top veteran player with a 35 year average of 29.02% and a 2.1 point lead over the Player Consensus and a 3.7 point over Atticus Ryan. Look for Brian Wood and Josh Sinnett to move to the top of these lists next year. Below is a list of the top ten players in each group:

CumStat Leaders

Top Ten Players
 

Top Ten Veteran Players

3 years or more
 

10 yrs or more
Rank Name Yrs Stats   Rank Name Yrs Stats
1 John Salizzoni 7 23.17   1 Gerry Hamilton 35 29.02
2 Larry Waters 3 24.09   2 Player Consensus 47 31.09
3 Josh Sinnett 9 24.22   3 Atticus Ryan 12 32.72
4 Brian Greiving 8 27.14   4 Nelson Slagle 53 34.13
5 Hector Garcia 4 28.56   5 Charles Kovac 13 35.21
6 Gerry Hamilton 35 29.02   6 Jerry Slagle 21 36.42
7 Internet Odds 7 29.47   7 Lindy's 11 36.61
8 Jim Thomas 9 30.46   8 John Slagle 31 37.00
9 Justin Burson 4 30.82   9 Mark Martinelli 12 38.59
10 Player Consensus 47 31.09   10 Blake Vasquez 21 38.64

Correspondence: This year I heard from about 30 players during the season and I even heard from a couple of past players that are no longer in the game. I want to give a special thanks to Rick and his pals, Dan and Dale for staying in touch and making the game interesting as well as Nelson Slagle for continuing to remind me why we play the game and keeping me focused on it.

Status of the Game, Part II: As you may recall, last year at this time I began casting about looking for someone to step up and volunteer to take over the game. I was also interested in hearing from anyone with suggestions- constructive or otherwise- about the game. To this request there was no response, which means- either we're doin' OK, or nobody cares. Oh well.

There were two responses to my request for a volunteer. Chris Smith was the first to offer to help out, but Chris had some things to take care of before he would be available. Then Josh Sinnett offered to take the game if we could just find someone to take care of the web site activities. By then Josh has access to the site and we assured him that that was the easiest part of the game. Soon after that I began to e-mail copies of the spreadsheet and other game data to Josh. By March Josh was ready to go and eager to start building his own database and spreadsheet. By mid-April each of us had copies of all of the player predictions and were both independently working on our spreadsheets with plans to do some comparative analysis when we finished.

Sometime about mid-season, Josh realized that he had some additional and unplanned commitments, things like family, a new house and a new job, all of which were significantly more important that our Baseball Predictions. Josh had to back out. Toward the end of the season I contacted Chris again to see if he was still available to take the game. He said yes. Chris now has a copy of the spreadsheet and within a few weeks we start looking at the entire game and, hopefully, Chris will be up and running by next Spring. I'll give you another update when we get the game restarted next March.

Gerry Hamilton
Trinidad, CA
November 8, 2012
ggh1@suddenlink.net
http://bbpredicts.unitedleagues.net/

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