2013 Season Wrap

Congratulations to Jamie Gehrke of Kansas City, MO for winning our 2013 Baseball Predictions, finishing three points ahead of Dayn Perry of CBSSportsline.com and five points ahead of Aaron Goldstein of spectator.org. Jamie's best prediction was in the National League West were he was one of just five players to pick the division correctly. Jamie took the lead on September 16th and was never headed the rest of the way. This is Jamie's third year in the game. He was 95th last season.

Early leaders included Jim Costello (164) who was the leader when the spreadsheet was completed in late-April. Other early leaders included Paul Ulliman (29), Rob Morris (111), Brent Wood (4), 2003 winner, Atticus Ryan (8) and first time player Chris Brugnola (24). Bert Carroll (30) took the lead at the end of May and was our leader for much of the rest of the way. Cory Dawson took the lead at the end of August and held it until Jamie stepped up two weeks later. Both Rob Morris and Cory Dawson are grandsons of two time winner, Warren Morris.

The player standings were run 53 times this season. There were eleven different leaders and twelve lead changes. Bert Carroll was the leader 24 times, Jamie led ten times and Cory Dawson led eight times.

Division Leaders: There were only 10 perfect division level predictions this year, down from 32 last year. There were no perfect predictions in the AL East, where Boston and Toronto surprised nearly everyone, the NL Central where only a handful expected the Pirates to finish as high as second. In the AL East 128 players (65%) scored 46 points (the high score for the division) as the Blue Jays finished 23 games behind of the Red Sox (see how that works?). Here is the listing of this year's top ten predictors for each division including the most common and average scores:


AL East Pts AL Central Pts AL West Pts
Dave Sauerheber 13 Ed Stokes 0 Bert Carroll 0
Aaron Goldstein 24 Jamie Gehrke 6 2012 Final Standings 0
Donald Bladow 24 Dayn Perry 6 Jon Heyman 0
Chuck Averill 24 Aaron Goldstein 6 Paul Ulliman 11
AJ Julian 24 Brent Wood 6 Joe Slavinsky 11
Rick Campbell 24 Atticus Ryan 6 Dave Mitchell 11
Rafael Gonzales 24 Anthony Fasulo 6 Albert Kirchner IV 11
Randy Nichols 24 San Jose Mercury News 6 Gerry Bilek 25
Cecil Fields 24 Athlon's Sports 6 Craig Elmore 25
Brian Greiving 24 Jim Buoni 6 Audrey West 25
& 2 others @ 24 & 16 players @ 6
128 players @ 48 105 players @ 58 105 players @ 36
Average Score 47.7 Average Score 48.1 Average Score 40.6
NL East Pts NL Central Pts NL West Pts
Alexis Hauck 0 Jamie Gehrke 8 Jamie Gehrke 0
Cory Dawson 2 Brent Wood 8 Charles Schwope 0
Charles Thomas 2 Al Green W95 8 Lindsey Salt 0
Todd Colegrove 2 Tim Kurkjian 8 Bruce Brown 0
Chris Brugnola 2 Ted Kaser 8 Terry Quinn 0
Fred Cordia 2 Gregory Skruch 8 Gerry Bilek 4
Prof. Bruce Bukiet 2 Mike Fulton 8 Dayn Perry 10
Jeff Sellers 2 David Roache 8 Brent Wood 10
Seth Rademaker 2 Glenn Braden 8 Andrew Coates 10
Don Dawson 2 Don Dawson 8 Bill Plunkett 10
& 5 others @ 2 & 4 others @ 8 & 61 others @ 10
115 players @ 22 63 players @ 14 66 players @ 32
Average Score 26.5 Average Score 36.5 Average Score 22.2


Tie-Breaker:
The tie-breaker represents the points accumulated by each player's projected division winners. Bert Carroll (30th) recorded the best tiebreaker with a score of 12.5, missing on Tampa Bay and Cincinnati. Bert was five points better than Greg Skruch (38th) who had 17.5 points, missing on the Yankees and Rangers.

Projected Winners: We were not nearly as successful with our post-season predictions this time around. Only two players, Dave Sauerheber (135th) and Jim Costello (164) predicted the Redsox rise from worst to first in the AL East but neither put Boston in the World Series. And while 47 players picked the Cardinals to win the NL Central, only three, Rick Campbell (96), Dave Mitchell (154) and Dirk Soeterik (186) picked Saint Louis to reach the Series.

CumStats: Brian Wood
, of Pittsburgh, PA is our new CumStat leader with an three year average of 17.69% and a 6.3 point lead over Josh Sinnett of Bellingham, WA and a 7.1 point lead this year's winner, Jamie Gehrke of Kansas City, MO. Josh has become our new top veteran player with a 10 year average of 23.95% and a 5.9 point lead over the former leader and a 6.7 point over Attcus Ryan. Below is a list of the top ten players in each group:

CumStat Leaders
 

Top Ten Veteran

Top Ten Players 3 years+
 

Players- 10 yrs+
 
Rank Name Yrs Stats   Rank Name Yrs Stats
1 Brian Wood 3 17.69   2 Josh Sinnett 10 23.95
2 Josh Sinnett 10 23.95   7 Gerry Hamilton 36 29.65
3 Jamie Gehrke 3 24.75   8 Atticus Ryan 13 30.48
4 Larry Waters 4 25.88   9 Player Consensus 49 31.20
5 John Salizzoni 8 27.72   10 San Jose Merc News 14 32.16
6 Matthew Cataldo 5 27.83   13 Jonathan Margrave 10 34.00
7 Gerry Hamilton 36 29.65   16 Nelson Slagle 54 34.73
8 Atticus Ryan 13 30.48   18 Gerry Bilek 10 35.54
9 Player Consensus 49 31.20   19 Charles Schwope 10 35.80
10 San Jose Merc News 14 32.16   21 Jim Thomas 10 36.85


Gerry Hamilton
Trinidad, CA

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