2015 Season Wrap

Congratulations to Steven Podraza of Mission Viejo, CA for winning our 2015 Baseball Predictions, Steven finishing 25 points ahead of Ed Stokes of Austin, TX and 44 points ahead of Al Melchior of CBSSports.com. Steven is first time player and was introduced to the game by Warren Morris who was winner 1985 and 2011. Steven is the fourth player that Warren has brought into the game and won. He first took the lead, briefly in mid-June and was 4th at the All-Star Break. For Ed Stokes 2015 represents his 29th game and his best finish. It is the 4th time that Ed has finished among the top ten players.

We had eight different leaders this year. Brian Wood (45) was the leader when the spreadsheet was completed and the first standings were posted in late-April. Over the next ten days three others, Rafael Gonzales (90), Elise Roach (25) and Kenny Farrell (35) stepped up. Only Elise managed to stay on top until Cecil Fields (10) became our 5th leader in mid-May. Cecil would dominate the leader board for much of the next three months. Steven got his first look at the lead, a brief one, in mid-June followed by Jonathan Carson (85) and Jim Costello (55) who occupied the top spot until Cecil regained the lead in mid-July. Steven regained the lead in the second week of August and as the AL West began to settle out, his lead quickly grew to as much as 43 points. He would hold the lead the rest of the way challenged briefly in September by Ed Stokes and Arlin Caldwell (4). Steven's 25 point win is the fifth highest margin of victory in 56 years of competition. The difference between 1st (110) and 3rd (154) was greater than the difference between 3rd and 60th.

The player standings were run 52 times this season. There were eight different leaders and eleven lead changes. Steven Podraza was the leader 19 times while Cecil Fields led 16 times. Elise Roache and Jonathan Carson each led six times.

Division Leaders: There were only 44 perfect division level predictions this year, down from 110 last year. All but three of those picks occured in the NL Central. This year's winner, Steven Podraza, appears in just one division, the AL West, where he picked up twenty points on everyone else and 54 points on over 85% of the players. Steven also beat the average in all six divisions. Listed below are the top ten players in each division including ties for 10th, most common division score and and average division score.

Top Ten Players by Division

AL East Pts AL Central Pts AL West Pts
Blake Kirchner 6 2015 Sprg Trng Results 0 Steven Podraza 6
Gregory Skruch 12 Dave Kuehn 0 Ed Stokes 26
Al Green W95 12 Arlin Caldwell 17 Lindy's Sports 26
Albert Kirchner 16 Cecil Fields 17 Mickey Campuzano 26
Elise Roache 16 Gary Shinabarger 17 Doug Slothower 26
Dudley Michael 16 John Hall 17 Bert Carroll 40
Hector Garcia 16 Jim Buoni 17 MLB Team Payroll 40
Carlie Dawson 18 Kenny Ferrell 17 Dave Hatfield 40
Aaron Torgerson 18 Travis Confer 17 Dave Kuehn 40
David Brown 18 Seth Rademaker 17 Al Melchior 42
& 16 others @ 18 & 15 others @ 17 & 19 others @ 42
71 players @ 30 77 players @ max 55 166 players @ max 60
Avg Score 33.1 Avg Score 44.2 Avg Score 56.8
NL East Pts NL Central Pts NL West Pts
Ed Stokes 14 Arlin Caldwell 0 Joe Schuster 0
Al Melchior 14 Caleb Whitaker 0 Arlin Caldwell 10
Caleb Whitaker 14 John Fonterosa 0 Caleb Whitaker 10
Aaron Torgerson 14 Nelson Slagle 0 Dan Bacon 10
John Consigli 14 Jon Heyman 0 Nelson Slagle 10
John Fonterosa 14 Joe Russell 0 Darren Dawson 10
David Brown 14 Jim W Slagle 0 Albert Kirchner 10
Nelson Slagle 14 Sharon Klein 0 David Steinberg 10
Darren Dawson 14 Rick Mize 0 Dick Hammerstrom 10
Steve Sax 14 Dick Hammerstrom 0 John Roache 10
& 25 others @ 14 & 31 others @ 0 & 27 others @ 10
72 players @ 38 27 players @ 6 49 players @ 32

Avg Score

35.0

Avg Score 

25.2

Avg Score

23.5

Tiebreaker: The tiebreaker represents the points accumulated by each player's projected division winners. Steven Richard (93rd) recorded the best tiebreaker with a score of 12.0, missing on the Angels, Nats and Pirates. Cecil Fields (10) and Rafael Gonzales (90) were next best with scores of 16.0 points.

World Serious Projections:
Only one player, Bert Carroll (113) projected the Kansas City Royals to go all the way and take the Series. John Salizzoni (38) was the only player to project the New York Mets to reach the series and John also picked Mets to win it all. Eighty-five players projected the Washington to make to the end of October. The Nats fell a bit short.

CumStats:
A pair of new three year players, John Fonterosa (11) and Elise Roache (25), both from the Baltimore area, have moved in at the top of the CumStats where John currently has a three year average of 13.6 and currently holds an 8.8 point lead over Elise. Josh Sinnett (30) of Bellingham, WA and John Salizzone (38) of Manchester, NH remain our top two veteran players. Josh now has an twelve year average of 23.9% and a 2.2 point lead over John and a 4.5 point over Joe Russell (24) of Sherman Oaks, CA. Detailed, year-by-year listings for the top four can be found at the Top4Player/Detail link. Veteran player and two time winner, Warren Morris (48) continues his hot streak with an average of 17.57 over the last six years.

CumStat Leaders
 

Top Ten Veteran Players

Top Ten Players -- 3 years+
 

10 yrs+
 
Rank Name Yrs Stats   Rank Name Yrs Stats
1 John Fonterosa 3 13.59   3 Josh Sinnett 12 23.91
2 Elise Roache 3 22.38   5 John Salizzoni 10 26.74
3 Josh Sinnett 12 23.91   7 Joe Russell 10 28.36
4 Caleb Whitaker 5 24.00   9 Gerry Hamilton 38 29.90
5 John Salizzoni 10 26.74   11 Consensus 51 31.21
6 Larry Waters 6 27.97   16 Atticus Ryan 15 32.99
7 Joe Russell 10 28.36   19 Nelson Slagle 56 33.73
8 Steve Sax 4 29.12   23 David Steinberg 13 35.17
9 Gerry Hamilton 38 29.90   24 Sean McAdam 11 36.05
10 Chris Brugnola 3 30.44   25 Jonathan Margrave 12 36.35

Closing Comments: I struggled with the game for much of this year as my faithful AppleWorks app suddenly slowed to a crawl early in the season and appeared to be ready for it's last rites. I began to look for an alternate course and the first thing that we did was get a new iMac Then since the apps that came with computer do not measure up we added Office for the Mac. This combination gave me an opportunity to finally use the translated spreadsheet that has been available to others for several years. It works but I sure do miss AppleWorks (a lot). So long for now.

Gerry Hamilton
Trinidad, CA
ggh1@suddenlink.net

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