In September (2009) Nelson Slagle offered to review my CumStats and put together some interesting stats and information in support of our 50th Annual Baseball Predictions. So I sent Nelson a copy of my current CumStat files, all seven of them, and Nelson has compiled the following data. As a point of reference, back in the '60s when Nelson was conducting the annual baseball predictions with 300 to 400 participants he routinely prepared and published similar data with his annual report.
Here is a list of the 26 players that have competed in at least 25 (half) of the games to date. The list includes six game winners and 21 of the 22 surviving players participated in the 2009 game.
|1||Nelson Slagle||50||13||Jack Hauck, dec||30|
|2||Phil Hensley||45||15||Al Manzey||29|
|2||Rick Higgins- W76, 83||45||15||Al Julian||29|
|2||Jerry Davis||45||17||John Slagle||28|
|5||Jim W. Slagle||37||17||Ted Kaser||28|
|6||Bob Scholl||35||17||Bob Thomas- W82||28|
|7||Martin Visser- W05||34||20||Al Finlay, dnp||27|
|8||John Baker, dec||33||20||Bob Stanley||27|
|9||John Wilford||32||20||Easy Freeman||27|
|9||Gerry Hamilton||32||23||Gene Slagle, dec||26|
|11||Hal Berger||31||23||Tim Carvalho||26|
|11||Nolie Carman||31||25||John Mitchell, dec- W79||25|
|13||Warren Morris- W85||30||25||Al Green- W95||25|
|There are an additional seven participants representing publications and miscellaneous predictions which have not been included. They are the Prior Year MLB Standings (46yrs), Player Consensus (45), Street & Smith (44), Exhibition Standings (42), Sporting News (31), Sports Illustrated (30) and the Los Angeles Times (26).|
|1||Josh Sinnett||6||10.27||1||Gerry Hamilton||32||28.52|
|2||John Salizzoni||4||18.84||2||USA Today BB Wkly||12||28.92|
|3||SABR Survey||5||19.75||3||Player Consensus||45||30.82|
|4||Beckett Baseball||4||25.43||4||Bob Scholl||35||31.36|
|5||Brian Greiving||5||27.55||5||Jack Ryan||11||34.27|
|6||Gerry Hamilton||32||28.52||6||Nelson Slagle||50||34.37|
|7||USA Today BB Wkly||12||28.92||7||Blake Vasquez||18||34.61|
|8||Chris Kelly||4||29.03||8||Jerry Slagle||20||35.04|
|9||Mark Martinelli||9||29.90||9||Los Angeles Times||26||36.62|
|10||Atticus Ryan||9||30.19||10||John Slagle||28||36.68|
|11||Jennifer Yarrobino||6||30.65||11||Charles Kovac||10||36.74|
|12||Internet Odds||4||30.81||12||Sports Illustrated||30||37.75|
|2 YEARS||3 YEARS|
|1||Jerry Slagle||0.46||2008-9||1||J. Atticus Ryan||3.68||2001-03|
|2||Warren Morris||1.31||1985-86||2||Gerry Hamilton||5.15||1994-96|
|3||Jerry Davis||1.52||1964-65||3||Jerry Davis||5.18||1963-65|
|4||Sean McAdam||1.59||2000-01||4||Gerry Hamilton||5.40||1992-94|
|5||Street & Smith||2.41||1970, 76||5||Nelson Slagle||5.67||1961-63|
|6||Gerry Hamilton||2.63||1994-5||6||Sean McAdam||5.80||2000-02|
|7||Dudley Michael||2.64||1993-94||8||Los Angeles Times||5.83||2002,3,7|
|7||Evan Grant||2.64||1998-99||7||Royce Newman||6.28||1985-87|
|4 YEARS||5 YEARS|
|PL||PREDICTOR||% PLACING||YEARS||PL||PREDICTOR||% PLACING||YEARS|
||6||Jim Stofer *||10.80||1964-9|
|* - Jim Stofer accumulated his data in the first phase of the game, thru 1970, and has not participated since that time. Jim has a six year cum average of 11.78% and would rank first among all Inactive players on our current game.|
||YEARS||PL||PLAYER||Top 10%||Yrs Pred.|
|1||Gerry Hamilton||10.30||1992-01||1||Bob Scholl||9||35|
|2||Gerry Hamilton||13.07||1988-97||2||Nelson Slagle||9||50|
|3||Gerry Hamilton||14.99||1993-02||3||Gerry Hamilton||7||32|
|4||Gerry Hamilton||15.21||1989-98||4||Phil Hensley||7||45|
|5||Gerry Hamilton||15.61||1990-99||5||John Baker||6||33|
|6||Gerry Hamilton||16.15||1994-03||6||Jerry Davis||6||44|
||Jerry Slagle *||5||20|
|* - Jerry Slagle's five top 10% finishes are in fact all top 3% finishes. No one else is close to that mark.|
|1998||Mark Martinelli||97||Dan Ford||143||46|
|1979||John Mitchell||79||Dick Coyne||124||45|
|2003||Atticus Ryan||66||Mike Gonzales||100||34|
|1960||Allen Vannoy||69||Pete Schnaufer||102||33|
|2009||Pat Morris||111||Jerry Slagle||135||24|
Rick Higgins is the only predictor to win twice in the 50 year history - 1976 & 1983
Three Ryan's have won: Joan in 1992, John 2002 and Atticus in 2003. A 4th, Jack, has predicted for 11 years.
Jerry Slagle has finished in the top 3%
five times. He has finished 2 in 2009, 2 in 2008 , 3 in 1990,
3 in 1982, and 5th in 1995. Jerry Davis was in top 4% five times.
Gerry Hamilton averaged 15.62% placing for 15 year period from 1988-2002. Gerry had a 14 year stretch from 1988-2001 where he averaged 13.32%. No other predictor has even close to those % placings for a ten year period and only 4 other predictors has bettered Gerry's 15 year % in 5 years! Next best 15 year predictor was Bob Scholl at 20.37% for years 1964-1983.
Gerry Hamilton and Nelson Slagle have run the predicts for 46 years, and still enjoy competing with each other. In one stretch of 15 years (1987-2001) Gerry won 14 times averaging 15.97% placing to 36.58% for Nelson. Nelson has won 6 of 8 years since 2001.
Three sports writers for the San Francisco Examiner won in 6 years as follows: Art Spander won in 1988, Joan Ryan in 1989 and Casey Tefertiller in 1993.
Four predictors at one time in Contracts & Pricing group of the Shuttle Program at Rockwell International won in a 14 year period as follows: Bob Thomas in 1982, Warren Morris in 1985, Tony Chase in 1986 and Al Green in 1995.
Three employees of Rockwell International, Space Division Accounting won the game, Denny Noh in 1977, John Reyes in 1978 and John Mitchell in 1979. A fourth member of the Accounting group, Martin Visser, won in 2005, long after he had retired.
First predictor from Rockwell International to win was Denny Noh in 1977 and predictors from RI won 9 of 11 years (1977-1987) and 10 of 13 years but only twice since 1989.
Three Predictors from 1st year of Baseball Predictions in 1955 predicted in 2009 as follows: Jerry Davis, Pete Schnaufer and Nelson Slagle.
SELECTED YEAR STATS AND WINNERS BY STATE
1955 - In the first year of baseball predictions we had 26 predictors. 20 were from Ohio, 4 were sports writers and the other two predictors were from New York and Massachusetts.
2004 - In first 11 finishers there were predictors from Calif. (3), New Mexico (2), NY (2), Fla, Nebr, Wash and Georgia. Seven different states in first 11 finishers!
2005 - In 2005 there were two predictors from Holland, three from Canada and one form the Ukraine. There were also predictors from 23 different stats and Wash DC.
2006 - 12 of first 17 predictors were from outside California from nine different states and Canada.
2007 - Five of first 7 predictors were sports writers.
2008 - Five of first six predictors were from California.
California predictors have won 21 years (including 10 straight years from 1984-93) and Ohio predictors have won 12 years but none since Shawn Dunaway won in 1996.
Sports writers have won 12 times. California, Ohio and sportswriters have won 45 times. Five of sports writers were from California and one from Rhode Island. The other 10 winners were from NY (3), Holland (2), Virginia, Texas, Florida, Rhode Island and Wisconsin.
See Game Transition. Note that in 1992, 60% of predictors were from Rockwell where we both worked. That percentage has continued to decrease as only 21% of predictors were Rockwell in 2007.
TOP RELATIVE FINISHES
In 1996, Shawn Dunaway won and his Uncle,
Phil Hensley was 2nd.
Randy Lang had a % of 1.54% (4th of 227) in 1994 and his wife, Donna, won in 1990 (out of 181 predictors).
Two Father and Son pairs have won the games:
- John Ryan was 1st in 2002 and his son, Atticus Ryan, was 1st in 2003 and 7th in 2002. Originally from Pittsburgh, they are the only foreign winners, living in Amsterdam at that time. They currently live in London.
- Warren Morris won in 1985 and 24 years later in 2009, Warren's son Pat Morris won.
Best brothers in on year - Jerry and Jim
Slagle in 2009 - 2nd and 5th - 1.04%
Best 3 family - Jerry, Jim and Nelson Slagle in 2009 - 2nd, 5th, 21 Tie, - 3.53%
Best 4 family - Jerry, Jim, Nelson and John Slagle in 2009 - 2nd, 5th, 21 Tie, 38 - 6.32%
Best 5 family - Jerry, Jim, Nelson, John and Jim W. Slagle in 2009 - 2nd, 5th, 21 Tie, 38, 134 tie - 16.26%
Prepared by: Nelson Slagle
E-Mail - email@example.com