50 YEAR STATS


In September (2009) Nelson Slagle offered to review my CumStats and put together some interesting stats and information in support of our 50th Annual Baseball Predictions. So I sent Nelson a copy of my current CumStat files, all seven of them, and Nelson has compiled the following data. As a point of reference, back in the '60s when Nelson was conducting the annual baseball predictions with 300 to 400 participants he routinely prepared and published similar data with his annual report.

Here is a list of the 26 players that have competed in at least 25 (half) of the games to date. The list includes six game winners and 21 of the 22 surviving players participated in the 2009 game.

PL PREDICTOR YEARS PL PREDICTOR YEARS
1 Nelson Slagle 50 13 Jack Hauck, dec 30
2 Phil Hensley 45 15 Al Manzey 29
2 Rick Higgins- W76, 83 45 15 Al Julian 29
2 Jerry Davis 45 17 John Slagle 28
5 Jim W. Slagle 37 17 Ted Kaser 28
6 Bob Scholl 35 17 Bob Thomas- W82 28
7 Martin Visser- W05 34 20 Al Finlay, dnp 27
8 John Baker, dec 33 20 Bob Stanley 27
9 John Wilford 32 20 Easy Freeman 27
9 Gerry Hamilton 32 23 Gene Slagle, dec 26
11 Hal Berger 31 23 Tim Carvalho 26
11 Nolie Carman 31 25 John Mitchell, dec- W79 25
13 Warren Morris- W85 30 25 Al Green- W95 25
There are an additional seven participants representing publications and miscellaneous predictions which have not been included. They are the Prior Year MLB Standings (46yrs), Player Consensus (45), Street & Smith (44), Exhibition Standings (42), Sporting News (31), Sports Illustrated (30) and the Los Angeles Times (26).

TOP 12 CURRENTLY ACTIVE PLAYERS

3 PLUS

PERCENT

10 PLUS

PERCENT
PL PREDICTOR YEARS PLACING PL PREDICTOR

YEARS
PLACING
1 Josh Sinnett 6 10.27 1 Gerry Hamilton 32 28.52
2 John Salizzoni 4 18.84 2 USA Today BB Wkly 12 28.92
3 SABR Survey 5 19.75 3 Player Consensus 45 30.82
4 Beckett Baseball 4 25.43 4 Bob Scholl 35 31.36
5 Brian Greiving 5 27.55 5 Jack Ryan 11 34.27
6 Gerry Hamilton 32 28.52 6 Nelson Slagle 50 34.37
7 USA Today BB Wkly 12 28.92 7 Blake Vasquez 18 34.61
8 Chris Kelly 4 29.03 8 Jerry Slagle 20 35.04
9 Mark Martinelli 9 29.90 9 Los Angeles Times 26 36.62
10 Atticus Ryan 9 30.19 10 John Slagle 28 36.68
11 Jennifer Yarrobino 6 30.65 11 Charles Kovac 10 36.74
12 Internet Odds 4 30.81 12 Sports Illustrated 30 37.75


TOP PREDICTORS FOR CONSECUTIVE YEARS
2 YEARS 3 YEARS
PL PREDICTOR % PLACING YEARS PL PREDICTOR

% PLACING
YEARS
1 Jerry Slagle 0.46 2008-9 1 J. Atticus Ryan 3.68 2001-03
2 Warren Morris 1.31 1985-86 2 Gerry Hamilton 5.15 1994-96
3 Jerry Davis 1.52 1964-65 3 Jerry Davis 5.18 1963-65
4 Sean McAdam 1.59 2000-01 4 Gerry Hamilton 5.40 1992-94
5 Street & Smith 2.41 1970, 76 5 Nelson Slagle 5.67 1961-63
6 Gerry Hamilton 2.63 1994-5 6 Sean McAdam 5.80 2000-02
7 Dudley Michael 2.64 1993-94 8 Los Angeles Times 5.83 2002,3,7
7 Evan Grant 2.64 1998-99 7 Royce Newman 6.28 1985-87
8 Josh Stinnett 2.70 2008-09
4 YEARS 5 YEARS
PL PREDICTOR % PLACING YEARS PL PREDICTOR % PLACING YEARS
1 Gerry Hamilton 5.15

1992-95
1 Gerry Hamilton 6.16 1992-6
2 Bob Thomas 6.35

1982-85
2 Dudley Michael 7.38 1993-7
3 Gerry Hamilton 7.44

1993-96
3 John Baker 8.86 1992-6
4 Gerry Hamilton 7.98

1994-97
4 Gerry Hamilton 9.24 1993-7
5 Jerry Davis 8.14

1963-66
5 Josh Sinnett 10.36 2005-9
6 Dudley Michael 8.23

1993-95
6 Jim Stofer * 10.80 1964-9
                 
* - Jim Stofer accumulated his data in the first phase of the game, thru 1970, and has not participated since that time. Jim has a six year cum average of 11.78% and would rank first among all Inactive players on our current game.
                 
10 YEARS

PLAYERS WITH TOP 10% FINISHES
PL PREDICTOR

% PLACING
YEARS PL PLAYER Top 10% Yrs Pred.
1 Gerry Hamilton 10.30 1992-01 1 Bob Scholl 9 35
2 Gerry Hamilton 13.07 1988-97 2 Nelson Slagle 9 50
3 Gerry Hamilton 14.99 1993-02 3 Gerry Hamilton 7 32
4 Gerry Hamilton 15.21 1989-98 4 Phil Hensley 7 45
5 Gerry Hamilton 15.61 1990-99 5 John Baker 6 33
6 Gerry Hamilton 16.15 1994-03 6 Jerry Davis 6 44
7 Rick Higgins 6 45

others
Jerry Slagle * 5 20
Josh Sinnett 4 6
                 
* - Jerry Slagle's five top 10% finishes are in fact all top 3% finishes. No one else is close to that mark.

Most points 1st finished ahead of 2nd- Top 5
POINT
YEAR 1ST POINTS 2ND POINTS DIFF.
1998 Mark Martinelli 97 Dan Ford 143 46
1979 John Mitchell 79 Dick Coyne 124 45
2003 Atticus Ryan 66 Mike Gonzales 100 34
1960 Allen Vannoy 69 Pete Schnaufer 102 33
2009 Pat Morris 111 Jerry Slagle 135 24

AMAZING STATS
Rick Higgins is the only predictor to win twice in the 50 year history - 1976 & 1983

Three Ryan's have won: Joan in 1992, John 2002 and Atticus in 2003. A 4th, Jack, has predicted for 11 years.

Jerry Slagle has finished in the top 3% five times. He has finished 2 in 2009, 2 in 2008 , 3 in 1990, 3 in 1982, and 5th in 1995. Jerry Davis was in top 4% five times.

Gerry Hamilton averaged 15.62% placing for 15 year period from 1988-2002. Gerry had a 14 year stretch from 1988-2001 where he averaged 13.32%. No other predictor has even close to those % placings for a ten year period and only 4 other predictors has bettered Gerry's 15 year % in 5 years! Next best 15 year predictor was Bob Scholl at 20.37% for years 1964-1983.

Gerry Hamilton and Nelson Slagle have run the predicts for 46 years, and still enjoy competing with each other. In one stretch of 15 years (1987-2001) Gerry won 14 times averaging 15.97% placing to 36.58% for Nelson. Nelson has won 6 of 8 years since 2001.

Three sports writers for the San Francisco Examiner won in 6 years as follows: Art Spander won in 1988, Joan Ryan in 1989 and Casey Tefertiller in 1993.

Four predictors at one time in Contracts & Pricing group of the Shuttle Program at Rockwell International won in a 14 year period as follows: Bob Thomas in 1982, Warren Morris in 1985, Tony Chase in 1986 and Al Green in 1995.

Three employees of Rockwell International, Space Division Accounting won the game, Denny Noh in 1977, John Reyes in 1978 and John Mitchell in 1979.
A fourth member of the Accounting group, Martin Visser, won in 2005, long after he had retired.

First predictor from Rockwell International to win was Denny Noh in 1977 and predictors from RI won 9 of 11 years (1977-1987) and 10 of 13 years but only twice since 1989.

Three Predictors from 1st year of Baseball Predictions in 1955 predicted in 2009 as follows: Jerry Davis, Pete Schnaufer and Nelson Slagle.

SELECTED YEAR STATS AND WINNERS BY STATE
1955 - In the first year of baseball predictions we had 26 predictors. 20 were from Ohio, 4 were sports writers and the other two predictors were from New York and Massachusetts.
2004 - In first 11 finishers there were predictors from Calif. (3), New Mexico (2), NY (2), Fla, Nebr, Wash and Georgia. Seven different states in first 11 finishers!
2005 - In 2005 there were two predictors from Holland, three from Canada and one form the Ukraine. There were also predictors from 23 different stats and Wash DC.
2006 - 12 of first 17 predictors were from outside California from nine different states and Canada.
2007 - Five of first 7 predictors were sports writers.
2008 - Five of first six predictors were from California.

California predictors have won 21 years (including 10 straight years from 1984-93) and Ohio predictors have won 12 years but none since Shawn Dunaway won in 1996.

Sports writers have won 12 times. California, Ohio and sportswriters have won 45 times. Five of sports writers were from California and one from Rhode Island. The other 10 winners were from NY (3), Holland (2), Virginia, Texas, Florida, Rhode Island and Wisconsin.

See Game Transition. Note that in 1992, 60% of predictors were from Rockwell where we both worked. That percentage has continued to decrease as only 21% of predictors were Rockwell in 2007.

TOP RELATIVE FINISHES

In 1996, Shawn Dunaway won and his Uncle, Phil Hensley was 2nd.
Randy Lang had a % of 1.54% (4th of 227) in 1994 and his wife, Donna, won in 1990 (out of 181 predictors).
Two Father and Son pairs have won the games:
- John Ryan was 1st in 2002 and his son, Atticus Ryan, was 1st in 2003 and 7th in 2002. Originally from Pittsburgh, they are the only foreign winners, living in Amsterdam at that time. They currently live in London.
- Warren Morris won in 1985 and 24 years later in 2009, Warren's son Pat Morris won.

Best brothers in on year - Jerry and Jim Slagle in 2009 - 2nd and 5th - 1.04%
Best 3 family - Jerry, Jim and Nelson Slagle in 2009 - 2nd, 5th, 21 Tie, - 3.53%
Best 4 family - Jerry, Jim, Nelson and John Slagle in 2009 - 2nd, 5th, 21 Tie, 38 - 6.32%
Best 5 family - Jerry, Jim, Nelson, John and Jim W. Slagle in 2009 - 2nd, 5th, 21 Tie, 38, 134 tie - 16.26%

Prepared by: Nelson Slagle
E-Mail - neslagle@hotmail.com
Date: 10-11-09

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