Each Spring, the participants of the Annual Baseball Predictions game try to forecast the outcome of each of the divisions of Major League Baseball by predicting the order of finish for each team. These predictions are entered into an AppleWorks 5/6 spreadsheet where the status of the game is maintained throughout the season. The web site provides the status of the game for on-line users and this page defines the content of the web site and explains the content and purpose of each page. Pages for the current game are inactive until the game gets underway in late April and May and first player standings are available in early-May. This year's game, 2009, is our 50th.

Current Player Standings: This page represents the current standings for this year's game. (Note: This was a multi-page report until June 2009) The standings include player location/source/publication for each player. Each player's score is given at the division level. The scoring of the game is based on the number of games each team is out of their projected place in the standings and is explained and illustrated in the Top 3 Players page. The Standings pages also show a tie-breaker for each player. The tie-breaker represents the total score for each player's projected division winners. This data represents the summary/recap level data from the primary spreadsheet that supports the game. These pages and the next four pages are available soon after all data has been tested- early to mid-May. The annual Final Standings are available on the website about ten days after the end of the season and include CumStats and best prior finish at the player level.

Current Game Status: This page is a running narrative of information regarding the progress of this year's game and is maintained until periodic standings become available.

Top 3 Players: This page shows the Major League standings and illustrates the player scoring as of the date of the current standings as well as listing the player picks for the top three players and their scores at the detail level. Actually, this is a look into details of the primary spreadsheet that supports the game. That spreadsheet includes a similar listing for each player as well as a summary/recap of all the players scores where the standings are sorted by tie-breaker and total score. It is important to note that the scoring of the game is based on the number of games that each team is out of it's predicted order of finish while the tie-breaker represents the games or points accumulated by each player's six project division leaders.

Leader Board: This page shows the top three players and their relative scores for selected standing runs along with the respective dates and run count. It includes all of this year's leaders and most of the lead changes along with a count for each category.

Player Consensus: This page is a recap of all the team-by-team player picks for 234 players, including the League Championship Series and World Series picks. The consensus does not include last year's Final Standings, this year's Spring Training standings, SABR Survey, Simulations and Odds. In the 2009 game, the Yankees, RedSox or Angels are favored over the Cubs, Mets or Dodgers in the World Series.

Keys: This page defines and lists significant keys to our performance in this year's game as of the date shown on the index page. Keys are based on the significant gaps in the current Major League standings and the Player Consensus and may also list players that have certain keys. This data is available after the All-Star Break. A decision was made at the end of the 2005 season to drop the keys from the final standings at the player level.

History of the Game: This page is a narrative describing how the game has grown and evolved during the 50 years (inactive for five years) since it's inception in 1955 through today's game as it is played out on the internet.

Game Transition: A discussion of the changes in the player make-up and the current status of the game during the period since it went on-line in 2000.

The Challenge: In July of 2008 a player questioned the scoring of the game and suggested an alternate method. The suggestion was discussed and rejected. This link leads to an overview of the discussion and includes links to an abridged listing of the e-mail discussion and a three page spreadsheet that compares the suggested scoring method to the existing method. This is the only time that anyone has ever challenged the scoring method of the game since it's inception in 1955.

Prior Winners: This page is a listing of the top three players and their scores for each of the 49 games played through 2008.

Cum Stats: These pages list the cumulative average statistics for currently active players who have participated for three or more years. It shows the number of years that each player has participated, the cum average percentage and the rank of the 162 players that have played for three or more years through 2008 and includes a listing of eighteen new three year players. An additional page lists 132 recently active players that are not in the current game. There is also a page that lists the year-by-years scoring of the Top 4 currently active players. There are hundreds of inactive players that have not yet been moved from the old data base.

The Cum Stats pages also include a listing of each player's best prior finish, previously included with the All-Star Break standings. This feature was added in 1994 at the suggestion of Rick Mize. The best prior finish is a weighted value and is dependent upon the number of players in the game for a given year. For example, it is better to finish 20th against over 200 players than to finish 10th against less than 100 players. An example of how the Cum Stats are computed is shown here:

Dudley Michael of Brea, CA was the Cum Stats leader through the year 2000 and best illustrates the Cum Stats. He is currently 43rd best overall and 14th best among players with ten or more years. Check out Dudley's stats for 1995 and 1999. In 1999 he was one position higher than 1995 but his stats were nearly four points better because there were nearly 60 more players in 1999. A similar comparison can be made for 1994 and 1997 and the the years 1998 and 2003. Dudley has a seventeen year average of 38.09%. Note that both the total players and the place or position have been adjusted by one (-1). That is because we do not compete against ourselves.

Here is another look at the detailed CumStats for two of our veteran players.

All-Star Break Standings: This page is similar to the Current Standings and represent the player standings as of the All-Star Break. These pages also include the number of years that each player has participated and where they finished the prior year. The best prior finish for each player, formerly listed with the All-Star Break standings, have been moved to the Cum Stats pages. This page serves as a source for certain historical data as well as a bench mark for the current season until the end of this year's game.

Archive: These pages include player standings and other related information for each of the nine years (since 2000) that the game has been on-line. There is also a page for the Early Years with links to the final player standings for the first forty years of the game. These pages were added to the site during the last half 2008.

Player Picks: A player index page and a set of eleven pages of detailed, team-by-team player picks. The data is arranged in sets of twelve players per row with two sets per page, and a total of eleven pages. To find your picks or some other set of player picks, go to the PlayerIndex and look for your name. There you will find links to each page of data and the end of each row. The players are generally arranged by family and friends groupings with sports writers and publications on the last two pages. This data is made available shortly after the first complete player standings are ready in early May.

Player Pick Forms: These pages are activated in February or March and are the forms that are used at the beginning of this year's game. The first is a printable form for those that wish send their picks via USPS or for retaining a copy of their own picks. The second is an interactive, user-friendly form for those that wish to prepare and e-mail their picks directly from the web site. The interactive form is the preferred method and requires that most fields be filled out before it can be e-mailed. The form was restored in 2007 after a one year absence due to the efforts of Atticus Ryan and Todd Slavinsky and their United Leagues Forum page. Another form is e-mailed to about 160 active and former on-line players prior to the beginning of each season. The forms remain active through the first week of April and then closed until the following season.