Web Site Description

Each Spring, the participants of the Annual Baseball Predictions game try to forecast the outcome of each of the divisions of Major League Baseball by predicting the order of finish for each team. These predictions are entered into an AppleWorks 6 spreadsheet where the status of the game is maintained throughout the season. The web site provides the status of the game for on-line users and this page defines the content of the web site and explains the content and purpose of each page. Pages for the current game are inactive until the game gets underway in late April and early May and first player standings are available in early-May. This year's game, 2016, will be our 57th time around and even though we have a winner every year, no one has ever gotten it right. Unlike prior years, this time we didn't get started until June and the first player standings were not available until July 4th. Also, this year the game moved to an Excel format and is in all probability our last.

Current Player Standings: This page represents the current player standings for this year's game. The standings include player location/source/publication for each player. Each player's score is given at the division level. The scoring of the game is based on the number of games each team is out of their projected place in the standings and is explained and illustrated in the Top 3 Players page. The Standings pages also show a tie-breaker for each player. The tie-breaker represents the total score for each player's projected division winners. This data represents the summary/recap level data from the primary spreadsheet that supports the game. This page and the next four pages are available soon after all data has been tested- early to mid-May. Player Standings are normally run on Mondays and Fridays and posted to the site by mid-day Monday (PDT). They may be run more frequently late in the season if the competition warrants it. The annual Final Standings are available on the website about ten days after the end of the season.

Current Game Log: This page represent a summary of the weekly players standings, lead changes and general data regarding player movement during the season. - no longer maintained

Game Status: This page is a running narrative of information regarding the progress of this year's game as it is being developed during March and April and is maintained until periodic standings become available in early May. If you haven't received the periodic player standings recently this might be a good place to find out why and when the data will be back on line.

Top 3 Players: This page shows the Major League standings and illustrates the player scoring as of the date of the current standings as well as listing the player picks for the top three players and their scores at the detail level. Actually, this is a look into details of the primary spreadsheet that supports the game. That spreadsheet includes a similar listing for each player as well as a summary/recap of all the players scores where the standings are sorted by tie-breaker and total score. It is important to note that the scoring of the game is based on the number of games that each team is out of it's predicted order of finish while the tie-breaker represents the games or points accumulated by each player's six project division leaders.

Leader Board: This page shows the top three players and their relative scores for selected standing runs along with the respective dates and run count. It includes all of this year's leaders and most of the lead changes along with a count for each category.

Keys: This page defines and lists significant keys to our performance in this year's game as of the date shown on the index page. Keys are based on the significant gaps in the current Major League standings and the Player Consensus and may also list players that have certain keys. This data is available after the All-Star Break. - no longer maintained

All-Star Break Standings: This page is similar to the Current Standings and represent the player standings as of the All-Star Break. This page serves as a bench mark for the current season until the end of this year's game.

History of the Game: This page is a narrative describing how the game has grown and evolved during the 55 years (inactive for five years) since it's inception in 1955 through today's game as it is played out on the internet. This page also includes links to a set of data regarding a challenge that was made to the game's scoring method in July of 2008. This is the only time that anyone has ever challenged the scoring method of the game since it's inception.

Game Transition: A discussion of the changes in the player make-up and the current status of the game during the period since it went on-line in 2000.

Prior Winners: This page is a listing of the top three players and their scores for each of the 56 games played through 2015.

Cum Stats: This page lists the cumulative average statistics for currently active players who have participated for three or more years. It shows the number of years that each player has participated, the cum average percentage and the rank of the 169 active players that have played for three or more years through 2015. There is also a page that lists the year-by-year scoring of the Top 4 currently active players. Following the game of 2009 Nelson Slagle did an analysis of the CumStat details and put together some interesting stats and information for the 50 Year Stats. There are hundreds of inactive players that have never been moved from the old data base and the Inactive Players page is no longer maintained.

The Cum Stats pages also include a listing of each player's best prior finish, previously included with the All-Star Break standings. This feature was added in 1994 at the suggestion of Rick Mize. The best prior finish is a weighted value and is dependent upon the number of players in the game for a given year. For example, it is better to finish 20th against over 200 players than to finish 10th against less than 100 players. A suggestion has been made, a very good suggestion I might add, to apply total weighted values when computing Cum Stats, but that suggestion has been tabled for the time being. An example of how the Cum Stats are computed is shown here:

Dudley MICHAEL, Brea, CA
Total (-1)

(-1) Adj
 

Year

Players

Place

Place

Stats

1993

238

3

2.0

0.84%

1994

225

11

10.0

4.44%

1995

137

21

20.0

14.60%

1996

157

21t

20.5

13.06%

1997

176

12

11.0

6.25%

1998

184

87

86.0

46.74%

1999

195

22

21.0

10.77%

2000

157

122

121.0

77.07%

2001

147

19

18.0

12.24%

2002

169

160

159.0

94.08%

2003

162

88

87.0

53.71%

2204

194

155

154.0

79.38$

2005

188

183

182.0

96.81%

2006

202

50

49.0

24.26%

2007

184

64

63

34.24%

2008

197

128

127.0

64.47%

2009

241

36

35.0

14.52%

2010

234

170

169

72.22%

2011

208

104

103

49.52%

2012

190

62

61

32.78%

2013

195

123

122

62.56%

2014

200

130

129

64.50%

2015

195

81t

80.5

41.49%

Total
 

23yrs
 

970.053
   

CumStats

42.176%

 

Dudley Michael of Brea, CA was the Cum Stats leader through the year 2000 (when the game went on-line) and best illustrates the Cum Stats. He is currently 41st best among 169 active players through 2015 overall and 20th among players with ten or more years. Check out Dudley's stats for 1995 and 1999. In 1999 he was one position higher than 1995 but his stats were nearly four points better because there were nearly 60 more players in 1999. A similar comparison can be made for 1994 and 1997 and the the years 1998 and 2003. Dudley has a twenty-three year average of 42.18%. Note that both the total players and the place or position have been adjusted by one (-1). That is because we do not compete against ourselves.

Here is another look at the detailed CumStats for two of our veteran players.

Player Consensus: This page is a recap of all the team-by-team player picks for the players for the current game, including the League Championship Series and World Series picks. The consensus does not include last year's Final Standings, this year's Spring Training standings, Simulations and Odds.

Archives: These pages include player standings and other related information for each of the last fifteen years (2000 thru 2015) that the game has been on-line. There is also a page for the Early Years with links to the final player standings for each of the first forty years of the game including four old newspaper articles that referenced our game. These pages were added to the site during the last half of 2008.

Photo Gallery: This is a page of "thumb nail" photos with links to full size photos of some of the games players, including thirteen past winners. This data was been added to the site in December 2009 and has since grown to 47 pix. I will continue to add new photos as they become available.

Player Pick Forms: These pages are activated in February or March and are the forms that are generally used at the beginning of each year's game for submitting individual player predictions. The first is a printable form (inactive) for those that wish send their picks via USPS or for retaining a copy of their own picks. The second is an interactive, user-friendly form (inactive) for those that wish to prepare and e-mail their picks directly from the web site. The interactive form has been designed so that each player's predictions can be loaded directly into the primary game spreadsheet and the interactive form is the preferred method. The form was restored in 2007 after a one year absence due to the efforts of Atticus Ryan and Todd Slavinsky and their United Leagues Forum page. Another form is e-mailed to approximately 200 active and former on-line players prior to the beginning of each season. Both forms remain active through the first week of April and then closed until the following season.

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